Distributing bulk prizes by percentage lets you determine the chance of winning, as each prize can be won by a specific percentage of players.
This prize setup may seem straightforward, but please note:
If you have limited prizes, it is possible to run out of prizes.
The prizes are arranged in order, from top to bottom, and the percentages affect each other.
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Running Out of Limited Prizes
Imagine you have 100 unique discount codes to give away, with a winner probability set at 20%.
At first glance, it may seem logical to expect that these 100 prizes would be claimed after 500 players have participated in the game. However, this outcome cannot be guaranteed because the 20% chance of winning applies independently to each game session.
The statistical probability means that, with every play, there is a separate chance of winning, regardless of previous outcomes. Therefore, the actual distribution of prizes depends heavily on the number of participants. As the sample size increases—that is, as more players join—the results will more accurately reflect the set winning percentage.
There are two ways to prevent this:
Use time distribution to spread your 100 prizes out over the campaign period. Learn more about time-distributed bulk prizes.
Add additional bulk prizes, such as consolation prizes. Learn more about consolation prizes.
Impact of Prize Order on Winning Percentages
When prizes are distributed based on a specific sequence within a list, this order affects how winning probabilities are calculated.
For example, if you have two prizes and want a total of 50% of players to win, you might think that assigning a 20% chance for the first prize and a 30% chance for the second prize would achieve this. However, this approach doesn’t account for the sequential impact on the overall winning rates.
Instead, to reach the desired total, you should set the first prize's winning chance to 20% and increase the second prize's chance to 38%.
The adjustment is necessary because the second prize's winning probability applies only to the 80% of players the total players, whom didn’t win the first prize.
By recalculating in this way, you ensure that the combined winning chances align with your intended outcome of 50% overall.
To help you calculate these percentages, use this spreadsheet (make a copy of the template to your own account) to find out what you should enter when setting up your bulk prizes. The video below shows how to use the spreadsheet.
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Note that if you rearrange the order of your bulk prizes, you will have to re-calculate the percentages!
As always, remember to test your prizes before going live.